About Bucknell
March 14, 2017 by Mike Casazza
West Virginia is a 13 1/2-point favorite Thursday against Bucknell in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It’s the largest point spread in a 4/13 matchup. It’s greater than what you’ll find in two of the 3/14 games. This means absolutely nothing, of course, but you get an idea of the perceived difference between these two programs.
One played in the Big 12, which has a No. 1 seed and a No. 3 seed above the Mountaineers and has some first-round picks on its rosters. The other played in the Patriot League, and Bucknell has only been awarding scholarships five years now. So you look at Bucknell’s statistics, and there’s a natural reaction. “Well, yeah, but that’s Patriot League competition.”
That’s not wrong, but it’s not right to say that, either. I’d like to begin there as we get to know the regular-season and tournament champion of the league that ranks No. 22 out of 32 in the RPI.
Bucknell played 20 of its 34 regular-season and conference tournament games against teams No. 201 and worse in the RPI. It’s strength of schedule ranks No. 186 out of 351 teams. So I get that critique. The Bison got healthy in the Patriot League, where they won 18 of 21 games by an average of 14.3 points.
Honestly, this is kind of what this iteration of Bucknell does. It’s the second straight season the Bison have won the regular-season title, and this is the second year with former assistant Nate Davis as the head coach. Last year, Bucknell started 3-10 and then went 14-4 in the Patriot League before losing in the tournament. This year, Bucknell was 15-3 and won the league by three games.
But consider this for perspective. The Mountaineers have some healthy stats. We’d agree on that. We’d also agree those same stats are not now what they were before Big 12 play. That then means WVU’s non-conference schedule is where everyone and everything got healthy.
WVU’s non-conference strength of schedule was No. 236. Bucknell’s conference strength of schedule was No. 241. It goes both ways.
Anyhow, Bucknell’s non-conference schedule featured three major-college teams: Wake Forest, Baylor, Vanderbilt. Those three regular-season opponents made the NCAA tournament, as did Mount St. Mary’s and Princeton. The Bison beat Vanderbilt and Mount St. Mary’s and lost to Wake Forest, Butler and Princeton.
For the purpose of comparisons, let’s stick with Wake Forest, Butler and Vanderbilt.
The major differences? Bucknell outrebounded Vanderbilt, owned the difference at the free-throw line and defender better/got luckier at the 3-point line. The opposite was true in the two losses.
WVU’s rebounding, its trips to and success at the free-throw line and the ability to make open 3s will matter.
But will it be as easy as the point spread and the opposition’s conference suggests?
Is it ever?
Bucknell’s a proud program. It’s been successful. It lost its coach to … George Mason … two years ago. But it hasn’t lost its opening game in its last four trips to the NCAA tournament, and the The Bison can score and they can play some defense. (Edit: I was reading the NCAA history for Bison, and it includes how far they advanced. Second round in 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013. Then I got to thinking, “Kansas. Arkansas. Who were the other two?” There are no other two. The NCAA called play-in games first-round games in 2011 and 2013, which makes first-round games second-round games. Bucknell lost to UConn and Butler those two seasons. So it’s actually lost its last two NCAA tournament games. Normally I’d just make a clean edit and save all this, but I want to reiterate how dumb it was to rename the rounds, a practice that has since ceased.)
It’s a fun offense to watch. It’s good. Conveniently enough, it’s a bit like Notre Dame. I know people are going to fixate on the turnovers (16.7 percent of plays are turnovers, which ranks No. 255), and certainly that matters, but part of Bucknell’s offensive success is attacking and trying to overwhelm teams with possessions against its offensive talent, which is superior in the Patriot League. It’s top four scorers were first-, second- or third-team all-conference. Four of the 15 best players in the league start for Bucknell.
The Bison don’t press, but their tempo is actually close to WVU’s (77.4 possession per game for the Mountaineers, 74.7 for Bucknell), and their point guard, Manassas, Virginia’s own Stephen Brown, ranks No. 65 nationally in assists per game (4.8) and No. 37 in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.63).
Can or will Bucknell scale back to be under control against a defense that wants to speed up the opponent?
These are the highlights from the league final against Lehigh. It tells the story quite nicely.
The Bison have a very good man in the middle, and Nana Foulland, a 6-foot-8, 230-pound junior forward, averages 14.9 points and a team-high 7.8 rebounds. He shoots 62.8 percent from the floor, which ranks No. 10 nationally. He’s the second Patriot League player to win player of the year and defensive player of the year, and he held his own against the top opponents. Offensively, it revolves around him.
The Bison play up high and have four players outside and one inside. The identity of the one can change — we’ll get to that — but Foulland is someone who can get on the block, catch a pass and score. The Mountaineers haven’t seen many players like that and many teams with a player like that, so it’s a bit of a change if not challenge. The post defenders will be warned that he’s going to spin to shoot with his right hand.
Everyone else is in motion, wheeling and curling and cutting to create space or shots for himself or someone else. With four players outside, there’s a lot of room to maneuver. The movement sets up shots. Players catch and shoot on the move and/or behind a teammate. There are a lot of handoffs, and the Bison can do plenty with even the appearance of one. Hand it off — or bounce it off the floor and leave it there! — or fake it and drive, or hand it off and set a screen, or hand it off and set a screen and then roll. WVU’s ability to pressure the ball and take Bucknell out of its offense is vital here, because the offense sets up shots and scores. The players trust it and pull the trigger, but resistance can change everything. WVU has to challenge shots consistently.
Foulland hasn’t taken a 3 all season and doesn’t do a lot with jumpers, but he does move around. Bucknell will play around Zach Thomas inside, as well. Foulland is the player of the year, but Thomas is the one who makes it all go. He’s their leading scorer and their best scorer. (He was 6-for-12 against Wake Forest, 3-for-11 against Butler and 7-for-11 against Vanderbilt.) A 6-foot-7 junior who like Foulland was first-team all-conference, he leads the team with 16 points per game and adds 6.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists while shooting 41.5 percent from 3-point range.
You need to watch him outside — actually, keep an eye on him at all times — because he nails 3s from all over, but just when you get a feel for that, he zips inside with a drive or turns into a low post option. He seems to like posting up and going across the paint for a fallaway or to play as a point guard who flicks the ball outside to one of the other players who shoot at or darn near 40 percent from 3-point range. Bucknell has five of those, counting Smith. But he also stands tall at the perimeter and whips passes to players on the go or behind a screen. He’s a play-maker for himself and for others, but he also commits 3.1 turnovers per game.
Brown, Foulland and Thomas are a good core. Kimbal MacKenzie — third-team all-conference — is an agile complement who shoots 55 percent from 2 and 40 percent from 3 and does well to get open because of everyone and everything around him. He has a sharp step-back jumper, but he’s also their most aggressive 3-point shooter.
There’s a semblance of a bench, for sure. How they do against the press remains to be seen. Certainly, they’re going to turn it over. They’re going to be new to WVU’s press, and WVU is going to be faster and have bigger guards. The determining factor, I think, will be one or two things:
- How do Thomas and Foulland help the press and react to WVU’s response to them catching passes in the press?
- How do Bucknell’s other guards, like Nate Jones and Avi Toomer — who split 34 starts — and John Azzinaro handle their minutes?
If Bucknell doesn’t fall apart under the pressure — and if WVU can apply it without turning the Bison loose for open lanes and open 3s in transition — it can score.
The Bison score from deep: 38.8 percent of their shots are 3s, which is a lot, but they also make 37.7 percent, which is No. 55 nationally.
The Bison also score from close: 54.6 percent from 2-point range, which is No. 19.
Put that together and marvel at their eFG%: 55.4, which is No. 22.
It’s a good offensive outfit, but the Bison are better this season because … well, because they’ve got a good coach and a lot of last year’s roster that figured it out in conference play. But Bucknell also lost its leading scorer of 17.2 points per game and another 14.2 points from two other regulars last year. Points per game went from 79 last year to 76.1 this year. The difference is defense. The Bison went from 73.8 points per game to 68.4.
How? Bucknell was long known for a matchup zone, from Pat Flannery through Dave Paulsen. Davis was an assistant for Flannery, and some of the offense and defense are at worst familiar.
Bucknell’s greatest basketball moment, of course, is beating Kansas in the first round in 2005. Watch the matchup zone.
Bucknell still does it, which ought to sound alarms for the sometimes spellbound Mountaineers, but not as a staple. Bucknell plays man-to-man these days. That version is an inside-out defense that lowers itself inside the perimeter and rushes outside. Not identical to but not unlike Kansas State, as far as recent opponents go, though the Wildcats were very nearly pack-line. But Bucknell sags off the perimeter and jumps out on shooters. This, too, will alert WVU, which does so much cutting and wants to do so much more driving.
The Bison encourage a lot of 3-point shots. In fact, 31.8 percent of opposition shots are 3s. That’s No. 35 nationally. The Mountaineers will have to decide if that’s a trap or an opportunity.
WVU’s going to have to move the ball — like, reverse the ball, probably even repeatedly — because Bucknell likes to fold the length of the court in half and keep the ball on one side, when it’s harder for a dribble to go downhill because the hill is shorter, the backboard isn’t as friendly and options for kickouts are reduced by a third.
Not very exotic, but you get an idea. That defender on the side of the floor opposite of the ball is one to watch. He adds a body to the paint, but if WVU can find the player that defender leaves, there’s an option. The Mountaineers have also played a lot of what we’ll call “triangle from the top” offense lately, where someone stands at the top of the key while two teammates work on the block and play a game to get one another open. It’s been effective, and Esa Ahmad has had some good moments from the top.
It’s a way around Bucknell’s ploy to shrink the floor and make a team work from the side, and WVU should be able to body up with backs to the basket there.
High screens from Elijah Macon and Nate Adrian will be useful, too, even though the dribbler is going to encounter defenders, and it’s here where I point out Brandon Watkins used to be a very effective screen-and-cut player.
There’s a balance for the Mountaineers to seek and secure. Macon can try to have himself a day inside, whether with first- or second-chance points, but Foulland is a legitimate obstacle. If WVU was using Adrian to post up against Deonte Burton, it’s reasonable to expect the same against Bucknell, which does not have a Burton.
The perimeter is going to be inviting. Lamont West was 0-for-9 from 3-point range after his 6-for-8 day and has missed 13 of 14. He’s too good to have a mechanical problem. Beetle Bolden won’t be physically overmatched in this game.
Inside helps the outside and the outside helps the inside, and one or both is greatly helped if WVU can play downhill and drive the ball straight through the middle. Tarik Phillip and Teyvon Myers have to like that challenge. That gets scores or free throws. It opens windows for passes to the perimeter. And if we’re being honest, WVU misses enough layups that it probably even creates second-chance possibilities, too.
So that’s a lot of words about a game still 48 hours away. I’ll leave you with one comparative picture.
Credit to NCAA.com, sports-reference.com and teamrankings.com for the statistic and graphics.