Iowa State and West Virginia are both 8-2 in their last 10, and they’re both familiar with tonight’s stage. This is the third title game for the Cyclones in four seasons. They won the first two. The Mountaineers were here last season and lost, and they sat on the court and felt the confetti fall on them while knowing it was for Kansas — freaking Kansas — and not for them.

“It was a little bit of respect. They won the game. But it was also so we could feel that feeling again,” Tarik Phillip said. “I knew we were going to end up back here again.”

Clairvoyant!

There is on obvious and perhaps ominous reality. Iowa State is on an offensive tear: 65, 80, 87, 84, 82, 72, 86, 76, 92 and 84 points, the last two coming here. WVU is not: 61, 85, 80, 83, 77, 61, 62, 87, 63 and 51, the last two coming here. The momentum really couldn’t be more different coming into the final except that they’re both 2-0.

In WVU’s world, that’s all that counts.

“Doesn’t matter at all,” Nate Adrian said. “That’s two completely different games and styles, and it’s going to be different again (tonight).”

WVU has four straight wins against the Cyclones by 5, 10, 13 and 11 points. More importantly, the Mountaineers have scored 81, 97, 87 and 85 points in those games. They’re going to need a number like that again. They’re not winning in the 60s and probably not even in the 70s unless they exhume a Herculean defensive effort. (Aside: More surprising outcome? WVU scoring in the 90s or Iowa State scoring in the 60s?)

The Mountaineers light up when they see Iowa State, though, and they’re three-point favorites tonight. They know Iowa State doesn’t rebound and isn’t big, and second-chance and paint points are to be had. Jevon Carter likes chasing Monte Morris and keeping the ball out of his hands. They know the Cyclones love offense and tolerate defense. But because the Cyclones are so darned good on offense, WVU has to guard and has to score to hang with Iowa State, and this roster likes that challenge. The fact Iowa State is at home here — and boasts about it — will be useful, too.

“Everything’s out the window now,” Phillip said. “It’s one game for it all. They’re going to shoot a lot of 3s, but they also don’t defend very well. It’s give and take.”

Remember, WVU stunk in a win against TCU and a loss to Baylor and then had Iowa State fall into the final spot of the regular season. The Mountaineers played good on offense and defense, and that seemed like a good boost for postseason play.

A loss won’t hurt WVU’s NCAA tournament seed. But does a win help? I’m not confident it will.

By all indications, WVU is a No. 4, and that seems quite fair. I don’t know how WVU gets to a No. 3, even with a win. Iowa State is below the Mountaineers in the RPI, so a championship run means the Mountaineers (No. 23) beat Nos. 155, 57 and 24. That’s … OK.

Look at this this way…

We know these are No. 1 seeds: Villanova and Gonzaga.

We know these could/should be No. 1 and won’t be worse than No. 2: Kansas, Kentucky, Oregon, Arizona.

We know these teams could/should be No. 2 and won’t be worse than No. 3: Kentucky, Duke.

That’s eight teams. We need 12 to fill the top three lines. We haven’t mentioned Baylor, Florida State, Florida, Louisville, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Purdue and UCLA. That’s eight teams. Is a victorious WVU better than five of them? All eight are above WVU in the RPI, but the RPI is just “one of many resources/tools available to the committee in the selection, seeding and bracketing process.”

Remember that, please. It’s new and evolving — earnestly, it would appear — and anyone telling you the RPI matters is choosing to tell you part of the story. We think the selection uses KenPom, Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, the little known KPI and ESPN’s BPI, and those cherish the Mountaineers. This isn’t going to be an easy call.

Let’s look again. I’d say victorious WVU is not better than UCLA and Louisville. Put them on the No. 3 line.

So WVU needs to be better than five of these six teams: Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Minnesota, Purdue and Notre Dame. I say victorious WVU is better than Florida and Purdue. Now victorious WVU needs to be better than three of these four: Baylor, Florida State, Minnesota and Notre Dame.

Those are the four to track, I think.

It’s not impossible but it’s not easy either. I think that Florida State belongs on the No. 3 line, no matter what, and that means, in only my line of thinking, it’s the Seminoles, Louisville and UCLA with one spot for Baylor, Minnesota, Notre Dame and WVU.

Baylor’s slipping. Didn’t finish the regular season well and lost its first game here. But the computers like Baylor. Minnesota and Notre Dame are still playing. I think Notre Dame grabs the No. 3 by beating Duke. I think it’s possible it belongs to Mike Brey’s mock turtleneck regardless, but that’s the most speculative think you’ve read in this speculative post.

So say that’s not true, and say Duke wins and WVU wins. Well, Minnesota, which is quietly pretty good, plays Michigan in today’s Big Ten semifinal. Northwestern and Wisconsin are on the other side. Two more wins for the younger Pitino might do it, but I don’t think it’s enough to get to a No. 3. (Update: Michigan wins. Adjust the above accordingly.)

So for WVU to get the No. 3, it would appear to require a win and a Notre Dame loss and strong consideration over a list of teams, likely Florida State, Notre Dame and most notably Baylor.