I’ll start out by saying this: The numbers, which you know well that I ordinarily want to believe in, have not liked West Virginia for most of the season and have been inaccurate for most of the season. But, whew, the numbers love Miami over the Mountaineers in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Plus-11!

I tend to think this is going to be close, and just watch this get crazy and go to three overtimes. Miami has more of the statistical advantages, but there aren’t many enormous margins. Perhaps the sum of the edges creates the gulf, but there’s something I have noticed as I’ve dug in and tried to find stories. Miami’s good on offense.

The Hurricanes stay on schedule. They average 6.3 yards per play and they avoid negative plays (good though not great success in tackles for a loss allowed and excellent work in turnovers committed). They completed 61 percent of their passes, and of 239 completed passes, 134 were first downs and 23 were touchdowns. They ran the ball 401 times and had 91 first downs and 24 touchdowns. Relative to WVU opponents, that’s closest to an Oklahoma pace: 252 completed passes, 162 first downs, 41 touchdowns; 530 carries, 125 first downs and 27 touchdowns.

That works in Miami’s favor, but WVU’s defense takes the ball away at a high rate, allows a tick less per carry than Miami averages and complicates passer efficiency.

It would seem the end for the Mountaineers will be the same as what preceded it. Yards on offense have to produce points, and explosive plays will help. Slowing down and stopping drives on defense will have to force punts, field goal attempts and fourth-down attempts.

In summary, it looks like they the organizers did a good job putting these two together.