Believe me, gang. Very few things interest me less than forward-thinking conversations about college conference expansion and realignment. We’ve done that dance, and my feet still hurt. I know it’s out there and it’s being covered and discussed, but I’m not completely sure why that is.

Or maybe I wasn’t completely sure.

That it’s so far off, to say nothing of so involved, so complex, so based on variables and so hard to predict, just zaps my interest. My eighth anniversary is coming up. I’m not worried about the platinum anniversary (then again, I only have a dozen years to save up for something special).

Typically — and you’ve heard this here before — I don’t worry about the problem as much as the solution. But in this case, the solution is just unattainable. What works today doesn’t work a decade from now. The focus then shifts to the problem, which in this case is the topic of more maneuverings. I don’t know that this is as much about the Big 12 collapsing as it is about the league growing. Can it grow? Should it grow? Will it grow?

Those are all important questions that feature separate deliberations and answers.

… and I can’t answer them.

Still, what I’ve come to grips with is that there’s now way the music stops when the television contract and grant of rights deals end and everything remains the same. The industry of college sports (read: football) is too popular and too lucrative now for schools to resist the compulsion to change. There’s a better deal to be negotiated and agreed to. Teams are going to move. Conferences are going to change their rosters. This is going to sound extreme, so let’s think of it on a much tamer scale, but I do think it’s reasonable to imagine a future in which contracts run out and schools act like free agents and do what’s best for them.

Consider this: The Big 12 arrangement ends in 2025. The ACC is still sitting on 15 (football) teams (because of Notre Dame) and wants to get to 16. WVU’s found the Big 12 experience to be financially acceptable, but hasn’t won (m)any football titles and hasn’t made the College Football Playoff. The travel is ridiculous and recruiting realities in all sports force WVU to enter the market. So the ACC signs WVU and solves problems with Pitt and Syracuse and brings some cool features for Virginia Tech, Virginia and the Panthers and, truly, makes a quality acquisition.

(Hypothetical, all of it!)

Similarly, what if Oklahoma isn’t all bluster and wants to go to the SEC or that Texas rekindles its affinity for the Pac-12? Strokes of a pen change everything. These things can all happen, and let’s not for a moment pretend that a school can’t sue to get out of a contract with a league. Someone’s absolutely willing to do that.

But again, those are solutions. The problem is in the present, and we have Big 12 athletic directors and presidents openly discussing additions. Why? To preserve, strengthen and secure the Big 12. You can easily read the same stories a second or third time and think, Hmm, he’s sort of asking the Big 12 to get it right before it all goes wrong. Not to put words in the WVU president’s mouth, but re-read EGG’s comments about having a geographical partner. Could you go through that a few times and think, That sounds ultimatumy? Read again the rest of his comments on expansion. Tell me he’s absolutely against growing. You can’t.

To me, this is also about those Group of Five schools on the outside who want to get in. Those programs are getting ready, and you see Houston, which was one a southwest power and was left out of the original Big 12, is all in on facilities, coaching salary pools and recruiting budgets. It’s why Colorado State is sinking money into a new stadium. It’s why those two have company from Tulsa and SMU and many others that are acting aggressively. They’re not there yet, but a lot can change in a decade — just look at WVU from 2005 to now — and those schools might make a leap like TCU or Baylor.

(Still hypothetical!)

It’s time to be wise about this. Schools and conferences have to be prepared. John Swofford still draws a paycheck. John Marinatto can still teach lessons. The Big 12 is still somewhat fortunate to be a Thing after multiple close calls. The Big East once played pretty good football. This is not to say it’s going to happen. It’s to say no one wants it to happen to them — and it can.

And that’s what makes David Boren’s comments so damn interesting. He loves to talk and draw headlines, but I think he knows that and I think he’s no dummy. I don’t think it was an accident that he said the Big 12 “should strive” for 12 teams and, oh by the way, also blew one of the Big 12’s biggest secrets.

Boren said the problem of reduced revenue per school with expansion wasn’t as big of a hurdle as it had been made out to be.

“The contract says that our main television contract … if we grow from 10 to 11 or 11 to 12, their payments to us grow proportionally,” Boren said. “So everybody’s share stays the same. If it’s ‘X’ dollars, it stays ‘X’ dollars.

“Our main media contract says it’s not the same pie now cut 12 ways instead of 10.”

Boren did say that that only includes the primary television contract, not other revenue that is split between the schools.

“It’s not total because there’s some smaller—much smaller—amounts of money around the edges but if you can find the right people, it should be additive even though it’s split 12 ways instead of 10.”

I feel like we’re going to look back X years from now and remember that. The money matters that much. With that brow-archer now a confirmed reality, one of the major obstacles for expansion is clear and, you know what? Expanding probably isn’t all that hard or costly … provided the league gets the right teams.

The Big 12 is about to enter the fourth year of its 13-year ESPN/Fox deal that averages about $20 million annually to every member.

What Boren taught us was adding schools still guarantees every member that sum instead of a thinned one, and that’s significant. The other payouts from the NCAA tournament, bowls and the College Football Playoff would smaller with more members, but it’s not a gigantic difference and it wouldn’t be too hard to recoup it.

The Big 12 just issued an average of $25.2 million per school. We know the league’s affiliation with the CFP and Peach and Cotton bowl appearances by TCU and Baylor amounted to about $6.4 million per school. The NCAA tournament money is harder to calculate because it’s a six-year formula with two teams still new to the league, but it’s likely around $2 million each.

Divide that $84 million sum among 12 teams and it’s $7 million per school. That $1.4 million gap is surely less than what every school could expect to make from a conference championship game should the Big 12 ever decide to add one, which it would with 12 or more teams. Add the right teams that can make the playoff or an any bowl or advance consistently in the NCAA tournament and a new number would come in above the $84 million.