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Five guesses about WVU football in 2011

I’ve been thinking and talking about this a good bit lately and I figure it could be pretty fun to get it on paper Web page now and perhaps revisit it and track it as we get closer to and then into the football season.

Let’s look at five little areas that could define the success of your football Mountaineers in the fall.

How many passes will the Mountaineers throw?

This is a better gauge than passing yards or touchdowns because it shows how often WVU is throwing the ball. In the five years he’s been an offensive coordinator (or co-coordinator), Holgorsen’s offenses threw 532 passes last season, a NCAA-high 744 in 2009,  608 in 2008, an NCAA-high 763 (!) in 2007 and a NCAA-high 656 in 2006.

The most apt-to-pass seasons in WVU history look like what might happen if I had to play QB for Holgorsen. 

Oh, and in case you’re curious, sacks allowed by Holgorsen’s offenses the past five seasons: 10, 18, 25, 18  and 18.

How many passes will WVU’s leader in receptions catch?

To be effective, WVU has to have a go-to guy to go to a dozen or so times a game. Let’s go though the previous five years again:  Justin Blackmon, 111; James Cleveland, 104; Mark Hafner (tight end), 86; Mike Crabtree, NCAA-best 134; Joel Filani, 91.

WVU’s record is 77, set in 1998 by Shawn Foreman, matched a season later by David Saunders and pursued the past two seasons by Jock Sanders. This record might fall by the 10th game.

Bonus: Who will be WVU’s leader in receptions?

How many passes will the second-leading receiver catch?

This is how you get an idea how much WVU will pass. In 2010, Josh Cooper caught 68 for Oklahoma State. Tyron Carrier caught 90 for Houston in 2009 (and teammate Patrick Edwards caught 85). In 2008, Carrier was second to Hafner with 79. In 2007, Danny Amendola caught 109, and was No. 4 nationally. Robert Johnson caught 89 and was No. 7 in 2006.

Again, totally new territory for WVU. Only Cooper wouldn’t have set WVU’s single-season record. Only he and Carrier wouldn’t have shattered it. And these were the second-leading receivers.

Bonus: Who is No. 2 for WVU?

How many carries will WVU’s team-leader have?

Funny note from Saturday’s scrimmage. WVU split 68 snaps about evenly among pass plays and run plays. That won’t happen in the regular season, but for a day, a rainy and windy day, there was a balance.

Kendall Hunter carried 271 times last season and, quite frankly, I’d be stunned if that happened. It’s a big number in a pass offense and would actually be No. 5 all-time at WVU. Bryce Beall led Houston with 139 carries in 2009 and 199 a year before that. In 2007, Shannon Woods had 84 carries for Texas Tech. He ran it 154 times the year before.

WVU’s top carrier the past five seasons has finished with 209, 249, 206, 211 and 248 carries. The second guy on the list had 106, 117, 191, 197 and 165.

Bonus: Who leads WVU in carries?

How may turnovers will WVU have?

WVU has had turnover trouble the past few years. You figure with a lot of passes, you’re increasing the odds of turning the ball over with interceptions and sack/fumbles. Then again, Holgorsen’s QBs get rid of the ball fast and WVU has been terrible with fumbles. Passing the ball, in theory, reduces the number of times a running back has the ball and can have it stripped.

Holgorsen’s offense doesn’t really do anything to be unusually careful or reckless. His numbers have been average and both above and below average.

Oklahoma State turned the ball over 22 times last season and 14 were interceptions. Houston had 26/15 in 2009 and 28/11 in 2008. Texas Tech had 26/15 in 2007 and 24/11 in 2006.

The Cowboys were No. 54 in turnovers and No. 70 in interceptions. Houston was 83/84 in 2009 and 94/42 in 2008. In 2007 Texas Tech was 71/72 and in 2006 the Red Raiders were 65/33.