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Numbers say offense stopping offense

Thursday night Jarrett Brown said something I didn’t really think much of at first. He basically stated said his offense was capable of scoring 65 points on a night it scored 35.

Bravado, I thought, and I walked back to the press box. Then I got to thinking and I stopped and scribbled down the quote with a note to investigate.

He might be onto something. There are two realities about West Virginia’s 3-1 football team:

1) It has a very good offense.
2) It has a pendulum swinging above.

That pendulum dipped low and nicked WVU in its loss at Auburn and it’s still up there rocking left to right, right to left, ever so ominously, always threatening to drop again and cut into the Mountaineers and what they do.

The offense has been good in all areas except one. It hasn’t allowed the offense to be great.  

How about some numbers?

WVU is No. 13 nationally in total offense and No. 27 in the all-important scoring offense. Noel Devine is No. 3 in rushing offense.

“We’re doing a lot of great things, too,” said Brown, who is No. 14 in total offense.

Couldn’t agree more. The Mountaineers can score points … when the Mountaineers allow themselves to score points.

Consider a year ago WVU scored points on 44 percent of its turnover-free possessions. This season WVU is potent enough to score on 44 percent of all its possessions. When the Mountaineers keep the ball, they make it count. So far, 36 possessions have ended without a turnover and the Mountaineers have scored on 61 percent of those – 17 touchdowns and just five field goals.

The Mountaineers have scored 33, 35, 30 and 35 points in the four games this season and that’s usually the trick it takes to win. Since 2000, they’re 60-2 when they score in the 30s with one loss being the six turnover nightmare at Auburn.

So, yeah, turnovers are keeping the offense from being, as Jeff Mullen offered, “special.”  The 14 this season — more than all but six of the 120 FBS teams and just two fewer than what WVU had last season — has led to 44 points for the opposition.

Of greater concern is where and the turnovers have been committed and what it’s meant to the offensive productivity.

Two turnovers have come on punt returns, which robbed the offense of a chance to do anything. Eight have come in the opponent’s territory. Two have been inside the 20 and three more inside the 30, when at the very least WVU could ask Tyler Bitancurt to kick three points onto the scoreboard.

Only one of the turnovers in the opponent’s territory hasn’t been inside the 35-yard line, meaning the chances are pretty good the offense would score on all of those possessions.