Inside Marshall Sports

Herd-49ers track meet; who has toughest schedule

Two items here today, so let’s get to it.

Marshall takes on Charlotte at 7 p.m. Thursday at Cam Henderson Center.

The Herd (13-12, 9-3) is third in Conference USA and the 49ers (10-15, 6-6) are in seventh, so it’s not exactly a 1-vs.-2 thing — unless we’re talking about scoring.

Counting conference games only, Marshall leads the league with 93.3 points per game, and Charlotte averages 82.9. BOTH numbers are higher than the league record of 81.2, set by Texas Christian in 2001-02.

The rest of the tale of the tape, again in league games only:

Scoring margin: Marshall +8.9 (1st), Charlotte +5.2 (4th)
Free throw percentage: Marshall .709 (4th), Charlotte .691 (8th)
Field-goal percentage: Marshall .505 (1st by .18), Charlotte .478 (4th)
3-point percentage: Charlotte .425 (1st), Marshall .402 (2nd)
3-point defense: Marshall .304 (2nd), Charlotte .421 (14th)
Assists: Marshall 19.0 (1st), Charlotte 15.58 (3rd)
Steals: Marshall 6.08 (T-3), Charlotte 5.25 (9th)
Turnover margin: Charlotte +1.5 (4th), Marshall -.067 (10th)
Assist/turnover ratio: Marshall 1.56 (1st), Charlotte 1.48 (3rd)
3-pointers made: Marshall 11.83 (1st), Charlotte 9.75 (2nd)

Are you seeing a trend?

Some individual leaders:
Scoring: Kelly, Herd 23.8 (2nd); Elmore, Herd 17.3 (9th); Uchebo, 49ers 16.0 (12th)
Rebounding: Uchebo, 49ers 13.8 (1st); Kelly, Herd 9.8 (4th)
FG percentage: Taylor, Herd .593 (4th); Uchebo, 49ers .580 (6th); Kelly, Herd .576 (8th); Vanhook, 49ers .571 (9th)
Assists: Elmore, Herd 6.75 (1st); Davis, 49ers 5.58 (4th)
FT percentage: Scott, 49ers .875 (T-6th)
Steals: Kelly, Herd 1.58 (T-7th)
3-pt percentage: White, 49ers .481 (3rd); Scott, 49ers .480 (4th); Elmore, Herd .458 (5th); Ogubueze, 49ers .448 (7th); Browining, Herd .440 (T-10th)
3-pointers made: Elmore, Herd 3.67 (1st); Ogbueze, 49ers 3.58 (2nd), White, 49ers 3.08 (3rd)
Assist/turnover ratio: Ogbueze, 49ers 4.00 (1st); Elmore, Herd 3.24 (2nd); Davis, 49ers 2.03 (8th); Browning, Herd 1.83 (10th)
Offensive rebounds: Uchebo, 49ers 4.67 (1st)
Minutes played: Ogbueze, 49ers 36.58 (2nd); Elmore, Herd 35.83 (T-5th)

There’s your game preview right there. And this: In the Herd’s 103-95 loss at Charlotte, the 49ers led by 19 with 7:25 left. Andrien White hit 8 3-pointers and scored 30, Joseph Uchebo went 24 and 21 and Curran Scott went 12 of 13 from the line. It was the Herd’s worst butt-kicking in conference play.

I’ll end with this: It’s not unreasonable to see Marshall staying at 3rd in the final C-USA standings, and Charlotte possibly sneaking up a spot to 6th. That could bring a Herd-49ers quarterfinal in Birmingham, so Marshall had better figure this team out.


Next order of business: We start to break down the standings, and the schedule for the rest of the season. The record refers to composite league record of remaining teams.

The current picture:
1. UAB 11-2. Left: at MTSU, MU, WKU, at FIU, at FAU (Record 34-26)
2. MTSU 10-3. Left UAB, WKU, MU, at FAU, at FIU (Record 35-25)
3. Marshall 9-3. Left: Charl, ODU, at UAB, at MTSU, La Tech, USM (Record 46-28)
4. La Tech 8-4. Left: at UTSA, at UTEP, NT, Rice, at MU, at WKU (Record 30-44)
5. ODU 7-5. Left: at WKU, at MU, UTEP, UTSA, at NT, at Rice (Record 30-44)
6. UTEP 7-6. Left: USM, La Tech, at ODU, at Charl, UTSA (Record 27-34)
7. Charlotte 6-6. Left: at MU, at WKU, UTSA, UTEP, at Rice, at NT (Record 30-44)
8. Fla. International 6-7. Left: at NT, at Rice, at FAU, UAB, MTSU (Record 34-29)
9. Fla. Atlantic 5-8. Left: at Rice, at NT, FIU, MTSU, UAB (Record 35-28)
10/11/12. W. Kentucky 4-8. Left: ODU, Charl, at MTSU, at UAB, USM, La Tech (Record 46-28)
10/11/12. North Texas 4-8. Left: FIU, FAU, at La Tech, at USM, ODU, Charl (Record 36-38)
10/11/12. Rice. Left: FAU, FIU, at USM, at La Tech, Charl, ODU (Record 36-38)
*****Southern Miss ineligible*****
13. UT-San Antonio 2-11. Left: La Tech, USM, at Charl, at ODU, UTEP (Record 32-29)

Yes, that’s Marshall and WKU with the best record of teams remaining.

Marshall 70% at FT line? Could happen

One of the most unsung positive developments in this Marshall basketball team? Free-throw shooting.

After watching some painful seasons at the FT line, the Thundering Herd is shooting .692, not that far from the 70 percent mark. Two seasons ago, that number was .622; in 2012-13, it was .598. Think about that — 59.8 percent.

DeAndre Kane was the biggest culprit that year, leading the team in FT attempts (165) but shooting just .521. He barely beat out big man Nigel Spikes, who was almost supposed to shoot his .520. Robert Goff, Chris Martin, Kelvin Amayo, JP Kambola and DeVince Boykins fell on the wrong side of .500.


This year’s Herd’s led, quantity-wise, by Ryan Taylor (130 attempts, .677). But James Kelly, the MVP candidate is hitting .770 in 87 attempts, Jon Elmore .784 in 74 tries. Only Justin Edmonds (6 of 15, .400) is under .500.

The Herd can get to 70 percent immediately if it hits the first 12 at Western Kentucky this Saturday. As it is, this will be the second-best FT shooting in the past decade, only behind the .715 of 2008-09, the second year under Donnie Jones. (Alas, that was a 15-17 season that ended in an ugly loss to Rice.)

The top shooters, by number of attempts: Markel Humphrey (134 attempts, .734), Damier Pitts (113 tries, .841), Tirrell Baines (113 tries, .646) and Shaquille Johnson (102 tries, .716).

The last decade, by year:

2015-16 …   .692
2014-15 …   .648
2013-14 …   .622
2012-13 …   .598
2011-12 …   .614
2010-11 …   .679
2009-10 …   .684
2008-09 …   .715
2007-08 …   .680
2006-07 …   .652

The Ron Jirsa era wrapped up in 2007. The Tom Herrion era ran from 2010-14. See any patterns there?

If you’re wondering, the school record is .790 in the 1957-58 season.





The signing class of 2016

Readjusted to 24.

Larry Aaron, DT, 6-5, 250, Columbia, Md.

One of the late commitments, 11 sacks as a junior. Played baseball and basketball, and I don’t know which is scarier for opponents. I’m not taking a charge from this guy! Coach Holliday likes multi-sport athletes. Ticketed for the 3-technique tackle; several teams come in late.

Tarik Adams, OL, 6-3, 300, Valdosta, Ga.

The Valdosta pipeline strikes again! One of 5 OLs in the class.

Sean Behrens, OL, 6-3, 290, Lithia, Fla.

Good academically, ticketed to play guard at this time.

Omari Cobb, LB, 6-4, 200, Port St. Lucie, Fla.

A Class 8A third-team all-state honoree. That’s not bad to do that in Florida’s biggest schools. Fits MU’s light ‘n’ speedy linebacker mold.

Rodney Croom, DE, 6-3, 235, Cincinnati, Ohio

13 sacks as a senior for Winton Woods High. Herd coaches have renewed a commitment to Cincy area.

JaQua Daniels, RB, 6-1, 219, Athens, Ga.

You can’t replace Devon Johnson, but this is along those lines.

Raymond Flanders, WR, 5-10, 170, Miami, Fla.

64 catches, 1,019 yards, 12 TDs for Florida 4A champs.

Xavier Gaines, QB/ATH, 6-2, 200, Frostproof, Fla.

Speed, athletic, can throw, can play multiple positions at this level. Coach Cronin has been in contact with this one for several years.

Chris Jackson, DB, 6-0, 160, Tallahassee, Fla. (enrolled)

Won a Florida state title in the 110-meter hurdles. I see Jackson with a 14.39 time on May 1, 2015; not sure what is his best.

Willie Johnson, WR, 6-0, 170, Fort Myers, Fla.

A late, late commitment and apparently, a good one. Also had offers from Arizona, Miami (FL), Ole Miss, North Carolina, South Florida, Tennessee, Western Kentucky and Kent State … Also returned kicks for South Fort Myers and could do so here … clocked at 4.31 in the 40 last summer … Has 95 career catches for 1,560 yards and 14 touchdowns … Averaged 13.8 yards per carry on the ground with two touchdowns as a senior … rated a four-star prospect by … Personal best in 200-meter run is 21.67 — 0.64 seconds faster than the West Virginia AAA champ.

Tyler King, RB, 5-11, 186, Fort Meade, Fla.

A speed back who can be a return guy.

Jeremiah Maddox, DB, 6-0, 180, Hilton Head Island, S.C. (enrolled)

Another 3-star recruit to fill up secondary position room.

Jaylon McClain-Sapp, DB, 5-11, 175, Jacksonville, Fla.

The word I heard from coach Goebbel is “confident.” As in, “he knows he’s the best on the field.” Like some cocky corners.

Cody Mitchell, ATH, 6-2, 212, Point Pleasant

Eager to follow brother Derek’s footsteps, though he won’t have to arrive as a walk-on. The “athlete” designation is a nod to his ability to be an outside linebacker, tight end or even a power running back, if warranted.

Alex Mollette, OL, 6-3, 284, Suwanee, Ga.

He helped helped North Gwinnett throw for 3,425 yards and 39 touchdowns and run for 1,368 yards and 17 scores en route to the first round of the Class 6A state playoffs. Said to bench-press 385 pounds, which would be comparable to that lifted by Cody Mitchell. … A “mean son of a gun” who can play multiple positions including center.

Garet Morrell, QB, 6-3, 195, Leesburg, Ga.

Broke fibula after leading Lee County to 6-1 start. In my experience, those tend to heal 100 percent, so he should be fine for his redshirt season. Spent 2 years behind Ohio State signee before jumping in for final 2 years.

Jestin Morrow, DB, 5-10, 160, Hilton Head Island, S.C.

Needs a few pounds but he’s not afraid of contact and will play special teams.

C.J. Reavis, DB, 6-1, 205 , Chester, Va., (via East Mississippi CC) (enrolled)

A bigger, more mature player, Coach Goebbel compared him to Ashton Hall.

Brandon Rodgers, WR, 5-10, 173, Prichard, Ala.

The one MU wrenched away from Southern Miss, he is the prototype slot receiver with speed — 10.75 in 100-meter dash (.44 faster than West Virginia AAA champ).

Alex Salguero, OL, 6-3, 310, Bradenton, Fla.

Helped Braden River to Class 7A state semis; perhaps the most physically advanced of the five OL recruits.

Sir Patrick Scott, DB, 6-1, 170, Upper Marlboro, Md.

Formerly committed to Michigan, he had 16 pass breakups and allowed only 8 completions. There’s a ratio you don’t find in the college game.

Will Ulmer, OL, 6-5, 285, Richmond, Ky.

Three stars by In honor of the late Phil Ratliff, the Herd could always use a Kentucky Headhunter. Earmarked as a tackle, beginning on the right side.

Pro Wells , TE, 6-5, 210, Kenneth City, Fla.

He plays played football for one year. That’s not a bad thing if you have his basketball background. He led state of Florida in tight end yardage.

Jaquan Yulee, LB, 6-1, 246, Chesapeake, Va.

No. 207 on ESPN 300, had 115 tackles, 12 forced fumbles and 10 sacks for 11-3 Indian River. Filthy, filthy credentials. Coach J.C. Price, who patrols Virginia on the recruiting trail, never let up on this guy. … Price: “I don’t know if we’ve had somebody come in the door as polished and big as he his.”

Statement from Mike Hamrick

Released just before 1:30 p.m.:

HUNTINGTON, W.Va. – Marshall University Director of Athletics Mike Hamrick released a statement on the basketball series between the Thundering Herd and West Virginia University, Thursday.

The game, dubbed the Capital Classic, has been played at the Charleston Civic Center on an annual basis for 25 years, since the 1991-92 season.

“The Capital Classic between Marshall and WVU has always been a tremendous game on our schedule for a variety of reasons, most importantly for the passionate basketball fans in the great state of West Virginia,” Hamrick said. “Scheduling is a diligent process for each and every team in the country; it is very strategic in nature. It is our desire to play this game for many years to come as it fits our scheduling philosophy to play a challenging non-conference schedule.”

I may be squandering all my column material for the Monday throwdown, but it may get stale between now and Sunday/Monday a.m.:

  1. Dan D’Antoni won’t apologize for his jab at WVU/Bob Huggins last year, but …  He’ll tell you his younger brother is more measured in his comments. Dan doesn’t have much of a filter, but what are you going to do? Fire him at 68? But after 40 years away from the MU athletic program, he needed to get a good lay of the land before poking Huggins. Now it stands as another instance of Marshall committing a PR blunder and WVU pouncing on it. (Hey to Dan Angel.)
  2. It’s Huggins’ world, and WVU officials merely live in it. He got the Capital Classic moved to December (some on both sides say that was good, though) and got next year’s game scrubbed. If you think that’s not the case, reply to this and show your work. I expect The Bowtie to remain silent on this matter … after all, he hopes the coach doesn’t fire him.
  3. New WVU AD Shane Lyons’ work is on hold. I can draw no other conclusion from this quote: “While we recognize there are fans who want to see the game return, our focus right now is on the Oklahoma State game this Saturday at 1 p.m. in the Coliseum, and the remaining Big 12 schedule in the coming months.” Most ADs have 2 functions at basketball games: (1) Shake hands with important people and (b) watch the game like the rest of us.
  4. 6 WVU nonconference opponents have RPIs lower than that of Marshall. Hey to Northern Kentucky, Stetson, Bethune-Cookman, Kennesaw State, Louisiana-Monroe and Eastern Kentucky. With comments that Marshall does not help WVU’s strength of schedule, I expect this to be rectified next season. That starts with bringing somebody better than Western Carolina (202) to the Civic Center. Good luck getting 11K to that one.
  5. MU will do fine without this game, thank you: That was the headline on my column of August 29, 2011, of which the link has regrettably dropped. (The mysterious has it, if you really want to buck up for that service.) With the folks up north playing the role of sore winner, I urged MU athletic officials to sever all ties with WVU and deal with people who treat them better.

That is easily one of my favorite columns, and it still rings true 3 1/2 years later. Time to move on, MU.

Grades for St. Pete Bowl

Going 11 of 17 on 3rd down and scoring just 16 points is some sort of dark comedy. And the 1 turnover was a glorified arm-throw punt, there were no stupid penalties on offense. 1 of 6 TDs in the red zone, 5 drives of 10 or more plays eating up about 27 minutes and scoring 9 points. … Trust me, UConn’s defense is pretty good, but dang…

I’m not remotely interested in dissent on this grade.

Amareto Curraj blasted a few touchbacks, Tyler Williams blasted a punt 61 yards and Deandre Reaves set up the Herd’s only TD. Any questions?

You could do worse than 23 of 34 for 218 yards. A tweeter told me Allen was open on that bomb that got picked, and that was about 150 yards away from me, but I still think that’s on Allen. He was matched up against a very, very good CB. Litton carried himself pretty well in his backyard, and I haven’t always seen that from Herd athletes. … And how about Michael Birdsong picking up 4 first downs in a special package?

That time mismanagement at the end of the first half drags this down. This grade is all about defensive coordinator Chuck Heater and strength coach Scott Sinclair. Defense was lights-out and the team finished strong against a big, bruising team. Give those two the finest courtesy cars. (The Birdsong wrinkle was pretty damn good, too.)

3 straight 10-win seasons for the Thundering Herd, the first time since 1997-99 that has happened. Won a grind-it-out game against a grind-it-out team from the “evil” AAC.

All-C-USA teams and the near future

The big one: Marshall has some recruitin’ and developin’ to do.

As detailed in Wednesday morning’s Gazette-Mail, the Herd’s first-team representation fell from 10 to 3. The representation on the first two teams slipped from 12 to 8.

It’s not a shameful situation, as 2014 really was a banner year in Marshall football (and 2 great 2014 Herd players suffered season-ending injuries). But when you look around, you know that (a) the Herd is not quite the bully on the block and (b) almost all the Herd honorees are seniors. Only second-teamer Michael Selby is a junior.

The honorable mention count did rise from 5 to 7, with 4 underclassmen. All must lead and all must step up their games for 2016.

Following is a look at the All-C-USA honorees who are underclassmen, listed by team:

OL Michael Selby, jr. (2nd)
TE Ryan Yuracheck, so. (HM)
DB Tiquan Lang, jr. (HM)
DB Corey Tindal, jr. (HM)
DL Gary Thompson, Jr. (HM)

OL Forrest Lamp, (1st)
WR Taywan Taylor, (1st)
RB Anthony Wales, jr. (2nd)
KR Kyle Towner, so. (2nd)
WR Nicholas Norris, jr. (HM)
LB T.J. McCullom, so. (HM)
LS Nolan Dowling, jr. (HM)

OL Cameron Tom, jr. (1st)
QB Nick Mullens, jr. (2nd)
RB Ito Smith, so. (2nd)
WR Casey Martin, so. (HM)
DL Dylan Bradley, jr. (HM)
DB D’Nerius Antoine, jr. (HM)

WR Trent Taylor, jr. (1st)
DB Xavier Woods, jr. (1st)
OL Darrell Brown, jr. (2nd)
K Jonathan Barnes, so. (2nd)
OL David Mahaffey, jr. (HM)
WR Carlos Henderson, so. (HM)
DL Jaylon Ferguson, fr. (HM)
KR Carlos Henderson, so. (HM)
LS Darrell Travis, so. (HM)

WR Richie James, fr. (1st)
DB Jeremy Cutrer, jr. (2nd)
QB Brent Stockstill, fr. (HM)
OL Maurquice Shakir, jr. (HM)
LS Williams Eads, jr. (HM)

RB Ray Lawry, so. (2nd)
WR Zach Pascal, jr. (2nd)
LB T.J. Ricks, jr. (2nd)

DL Trey Hendrickson, jr. (1st)
P Dalton Schomp, jr. (1st)
LB Ocie Rose, fr. (HM)
DB Jalen Young, fr. (HM)

OL Michael Montrero, jr. (2nd)
LB Anthony Wint, so. (2nd)
TE Jonnu Smith, jr. (HM, only because of injury)

RB Kalif Phillips, jr. (2nd)
DL Larry Ogunjobi, jr. (2nd)

OL Kaydon Kirby, jr. (HM)

RB Aaron Jones, jr. (HM)
OL Will Hernandez, so. (HM)
TE Hayden Plinke, jr. (HM)
DL Nick Usher, jr. (HM)
LB Alvin Jones, so. (HM)
K Jay Mattox, jr. (HM)
P Alan Luna, so. (HM)

RB Jarveon Williams, jr. (HM)
WR Kerry Thomas, jr. (HM)
DL Marcus Davenport, so. (HM)
DB Michael Egwuagu, jr. (HM)

WR Zach Wright, jr. (HM)
LB Alex Lyons jr. (HM)

A final note: Marshall had just 1 player on the All-Freshman Team, DE Ryan Bee. But I chalk that up as much to the Herd not needing to play a lot of freshmen an anything. Tidbit: of the 13 MU players on those teams since 2012, 5 left the program early.


Grades for the Western Kentucky game

Rushed for minus-4 yards in the 1st half, 31 for game, only 5 first downs in first half. Most 1st-down plays gained 1 yard or less, or finished with some other disaster. WKU’s defense is better, but Herd made those guys look dominant for much of the 1st half. I think the Herd OL can use the bowl break well.

Tough to get off the field when you’re giving up 25 first downs in a half.

Deandre Reaves worked his magic on kickoff returns again, and kicking coverage teams were pretty solid. Deducting for Antavis’ Rowe’s unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a punt and Nick Smith’s missed FG.

2 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles and a number of misfired passes. Chase Litton’s 32-yard TD pass to Justin Hunt was a great result of a broken play, but the score was 41-14 at the time

Minor beefs include a tardy abandonment of the run and nothing creative on first-down offensive plays early in the game. Add in the choice to defer at the coin toss against the league’s best offense. Major beef: You have 13 days before this game and your team starts flat. What’s with that?

Losing to WKU is nothing to be ashamed of. The Hilltoppers are a nice, nice team and a great addition to Conference USA. But to start the biggest game of the year in a slumber like that? Are you kidding me? Marshall has something to prove in the bowl game.

Of Big Red and a big football game

So what will be better in Friday’s Marshall-Western Kentucky game: The game or a battle of the mascots?

For the latter to be an even match, MU would have to bring Dr. Allen Young, the greatest Marco of them all from the 1980s, out of retirement. No Marco has carried the man’s hooves since.

If you are going to Bowling Green, Kentucky, and you don’t know about Big Red, you’ll wonder “what the heck”? That’s why you need this primer on the lovable red blob. I’ve long had a mascot crush on this … uh … object.

But it’s all about the game, and this is the most compelling regular-season game for the Thundering Herd in years. I’m thinking this is the first time MU is playing its third winner-take-all game for a division title. (Ohio 1997, East Carolina 2013, both U butt-kickings.)

Rest assured, this WKU team will get more than one first down. Both teams had 37 in that defensive dumpster fire of a 67-66 game last year.

This may be the 80th time I’ve mentioned this, but this is a classic Marshall offense the Herd is facing. Brandon Doughty isn’t as smart as Chad Pennington (who is?) and doesn’t have the arm strength of Byron Leftwich (who does?), but he runs that offense like a maestro. Good, veteran line, running backs, more receivers than you can comfortably defend … It’s the Herd in red, with chrome helmets.

So think of those MU offenses and how they baffled everyone and tell me: How do you game plan for that?

Much of the Herd’s problem in the first half last year, I believe, was simply the shock of it all. Those defenders had not seen an offense like that, with that much diversity and so many weapons, in their career. Halftime was the MU defense’s best friend, and you saw things settle down after that.

As much as I love Marshall’s defense, Doughty and Co. will get theirs. Holding the Hilltoppers under 35 points qualifies as a winning effort by the defense and will be noted as such.

A field goal is a victory, a stop is an opportunity and a three-and-out is a turnover after which your offense must score. The Tops are quite efficient in the red zone, where the Herd defense has been dynamite.

The big worry for Herd fans is offensive consistency. WKU scored three short-field TDs in that first half last year, and I figure it will get one or two such opportunities this time around. The Herd’s red-zone issues may resurface, and I can see a long drive or two ending up with a field-goal attempt.

As good as Chase Litton is and probably will be, he will endure some “hard knocks” moments. WKU’s defense is much improved as I outlined this morning, and MU’s offensive line will be stressed. Wonderful Terry, Branden Leston and others are capable of scoring a defensive TD on any play, or simply adding to the Hilltoppers’ 23 takeaways.

Fear No. 1 for the Herd: WKU gets ball to start the game (which probably happens), scores a touchdown, MU goes 3-and-out, WKU scores another TD.

Fear No. 2: This could be a repeat of the Ohio game, where the Herd’s offensive difficulties eventually take a toll on the defense. Every 3-and-out, every red-zone field goal plays into Doughty’s hands.

I’m seeing the latter scenario play out. I’ll tell you this: If the Herd wins, Chase Litton probably becomes one bad dude in the process.

Gambling degenerates, skip the line and the over-under, for there are too many possibilities. But I’m going to call it:

Western Kentucky 44, Marshall 23






Bowl considerations (updated 11/24)

The grudge match with Western Kentucky is the No. 1 issue in the Marshall world. The bowl destination and opponent is No. 2.

We’ll deal with the latter here.

The conventional wisdom, I am told, is the Herd is headed to the Miami Beach Bowl (Dec. 21) or the St. Petersburg Bowl (Dec. 26). I don’t see that as 100 percent, but well over 75 percent.

I am advocating the Herd play an American Athletic Conference team or, in a near-impossible scenario, one from the Mountain West. Not as hip on the Heart of Dallas, though the opponent will be more appetizing that Illinois last year (I think). I think only 3 bowls are possible, unless something strange happens.

There are 4 good C-USA entrants, the ones who are playing in the league “semifinals” this week — Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi, Western Kentucky and Marshall. Middle Tennessee (reported off to the Bahamas Bowl, per ESPN) is the 5th team at a probable 7-5. Old Dominion, who I expect to beat an emotion-spent Florida Atlantic team in Norfolk, should be No. 6.

That means C-USA is vacating 1 bowl spot, maybe 2.

My thoughts:

  1. Marshall is NOT going to the Bahamas Bowl: As ESPN’s Brett McMurphy reported before 1 p.m. Tuesday, Middle Tennessee is accepting a bid to that game. Good. If MTSU has a decent fan base, I have yet to see it, so the Bahamas is the best fit.
  2. Go west, Old Dominion: If ODU becomes eligible at 6-6, the Monarchs should be heading west to the New Mexico or the new Arizona Bowl. ESPN Events (C-USA’s top bowl TV partner) runs the NM game; the American Sports Network is airing the Arizona along with As you’ll recall, ASN is C-USA’s stopgap TV partner during the regular season.
  3. If WKU or Marshall wins the league, this should be simple: Send them to St. Pete and Miami Beach vs. the AAC.
  4. What about Louisiana Tech/Southern Miss? If the West doesn’t win the league title, there are 2 great fits — La. Tech vs. Arkansas State (the probable Sun Belt champ) in New Orleans and Southern Miss playing Heart of Dallas (LT played in the HOD last year). The Big 12 will not fill its HOD spot, so it could/should be filled by a surplus Pac-12 team such as California (please no surplus MAC team). … I project La. Tech to New Orleans to give HOD a fresh team, though the geographic consideration may dictate otherwise (see comments).
  5. But what if LT/USM win the league title? C-USA has given its champ the choice in the post-Liberty Bowl era the first option, though it’s not automatic. What if the West-based champ wants a shot at a Florida bowl? And would you pit a champion La. Tech against the Sun Belt in New Orleans? Hmmmmm …
  6. If South Florida wins the AAC and Toledo does not win the MAC, does the C-USA champ (if from East) play in a big-boy bowl? Wouldn’t that be a hoot! But beware of the College Football Playoff Committee (aka Condi and the Boys) opting for a 3-loss MWC team.
  7. How would the (embarrassing) infusion of 5-7 teams affect any of this? Nobody seems to know for sure, as this article outlines. I project 78-80 teams to win 6 or more; 80 avoids this mess.

Sooo … How will the AAC teams be distributed? Which teams go to Florida?

At this minute, I am operating under the assumption Houston wins the league and takes the Group of 5’s “access” spot. But Navy and Temple are worthy contenders, and USF is looking really good. (Anybody see what the Bulls did to Cincinnati?)

I project 8 eligible AAC teams to cover 7 bowls, but that becomes 8 bowls with the access spot. 7 are currently eligible with Tulsa needing a win.

The AAC does have two games vs. “Power 5,” Birmingham (vs. SEC) and Military (ACC). Navy is the team for the latter UNLESS the Midshipmen win the league and go to big bowl. In that event, Temple makes a great geographic fit and should go to Annapolis.

You’d be surprised to know the AAC has sent its fourth-place team to Birmingham the last two seasons.

(Here is a point to remember: Conferences play a role in all this, as does TV. C-USA pools revenues and expenses, so travel and ticket sales are factors.)

On the AAC side, let’s call it this way: There is a 5-team pool to fill St. Pete, Miami, Military, Birmingham and Hawaii. (As I understand the AAC site’s description, those five bowls have a higher status than Boca Raton and Orlando-based Cure.) Those 5 teams are Temple, South Florida, Houston, Navy and Memphis. Cincinnati would make a 6th team (I expect the Bearcats to knock out East Carolina this week.)

USF hasn’t been a bowl since 2010. Temple hasn’t been to one since 2011. Memphis played at Miami Beach last season. Cautiously, I am going to stick with Houston as the league champ and pick WKU to win C-USA. (I’m making Marshall show me something Friday.)

Here’s how I look at it, as of midday Tuesday:

  • Southern Miss at Heart of Dallas, if against Pac-12
  • La. Tech vs. Arkansas State at New Orleans
  • Middle Tennessee vs. MAC at Bahamas Bowl
  • Old Dominion vs. MWC at Arizona Bowl
  • Marshall vs. South Florida at St. Pete
  • WKU vs. Temple at Miami Beach
  • Navy to Military
  • Memphis to Birmingham
  • Cincinnati to Hawaii

So … am I out of my mind on any of this? Probably.

But at least I didn’t project Marshall vs. Akron in the Bahamas. Sheesh.