(I whiffed badly on ECU smacking SMU around and missed UAB winning at UTEP, whichÂ I think isÂ a pretty good win for the Blazers).Â
1. Memphis 16-0
2. Houston 13-3
3. UAB 12-4
4. UCF 10-6
5. Marshall 8-8 (will win convoluted tiebreaker … 0-1 vs. Houston)
6. UTEP 8-8 (0-2 vs. Houston)
7.Â Southern Miss 8-8 (bottom of tiebreaker, 0-2 vs. Memphis)
8/9. Tulsa 7-9 (tiebreaker wonâ€™t matter)
8/9. Tulane 7-9
10. East Carolina 4-12
11.Â SMU 3-13
12. Rice 0-16
This wouldn’t be bad for the Herd… it would smack the Rice Owls, then get into a 5-vs.-4 game with UCF. Memphis would await, but getting into the semis would an *enormous* accomplishment, IMO. Bad news (for me, anyway): Herd would play the first two rounds at 9:30 ET.
If you’re wondering about the Conference USA tiebreakers, they are listed on the league Web site. And yes, going 0-1 against somebody is considered better than going 0-2 … Marshall won the 8-9 tiebreaker that way last year, though it only determined who would wear white uniforms.
A final note: this projection hinges on UTEP losing at Southern Miss on March 4, a pretty shaky pick. RiceÂ finishes with ECU and SMU (at Katy, Texas), but I think the Owls are simply too bad/beat up toÂ beat anybody.Â