C-USA projection, 2/25

February 25, 2010 by Doug Smock

OK, folks, the Herd gutted out a win at a truly lousy place to play and steamrolled Rice. That part of the script worked nicely … and can you believe the Herd has a chance to go 6-2 in Conference USA road games? Do that every year and you *will* have sustained success.

I’ll take a gold star for projecting Houston to beat Memphis. But for fun, I will pick the Cougs to turn around and boot one at SMU. It would be just like them, don’t you think?

Again, I’ll give two sets of projections, both picking the Herd to go 2-1 the rest of the way. The losses would be to UTEP or SMU … and I am reminded that the Herd has lost its regular season finale the last *two* years, in rather yucky fashion.

I am going to project UTEP to lose once, whether at Marshall or at home to UAB. But only once — the Miners are pretty potent, and have won the tough ones. Also I will take UAB to win at home against Memphis, and then Memphis turns around and beats Tulsa.

(If Marshall loses to UTEP)
1. UTEP 14-2
2. UAB 13-3
3. Memphis 12-4
4. Marshall 11-5
5. Tulsa 10-6
6. Southern Miss 8-8
7. Houston 8-8
8. SMU 7-9
9. UCF 7-9 (order doesn’t matter here)
10. East Carolina 3-13
11. Tulane 2-14
12. Rice 1-15

(If Marshall beats UTEP and loses to SMU, and UTEP then beats UAB)
1. UTEP 14-2
2. UAB 12-4
3. Memphis 12-4
4. Marshall 11-5
5. Tulsa 10-6
6. Southern Miss 8-8
7. Houston 8-8
8. SMU 7-9
9. UCF 7-9
10. East Carolina 3-13
11. Tulane 2-14
12. Rice 1-15

If Marshall can win out and finish 12-4, I think it can rise from the No. 4 seed in tiebreakers, unless it is in a simple head-to-head with Memphis. A word on tiebreakers: They have become a little messier after getting redefined last year. I have to read them over a few times to properly apply them.

One Response to “C-USA projection, 2/25”

  1. Roger says:

    Here’s a prediction: Marshall will beat UTEP if they shoot 75% from the free throw line. That is a BIG IF. Also, IF the Herd beats UTEP they beat SMU on the road to finish 12-4. I guess in that scenario Marshall needs help from Memphis, right? Thereby finishing with a 3 seed and avoiding a semis match up with the Miners.

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