During last week’s gubernatorial debate, Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin tried to offer an encouraging assessment of where West Virginia’s coal industry is headed in the wake of this year’s string of major layoffs.

“We certainly hope that, as the world economy picks back up, that the demand for coal will go back up, and a lot of these miners will go back to work,” Tomblin said.

In the presidential race, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has touted what experts say are greatly optimistic estimates of the life of the nation’s coal supply — if only regulators from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency would let it be mined and burned. Likewise, President Obama has promoted what he calls “clean coal” as part of an “all of the above” energy plan. Running for re-election, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., insists West Virginia coal can help America become “energy independent.”

Across West Virginia’s southern coal counties, such talk suggests that coal’s best days might be just around the corner, if regulators can be made to back off or new technology can capture dangerous emissions.

There’s just one problem: Analysts agree that much of the best coal in Southern West Virginia has already been mined. Thinner and lower quality seams are left, meaning production and productivity are dropping. Tough competition from inexpensive natural gas and other coal basins makes matters worse. New environmental restrictions only add to coal’s problems, and production is headed down regardless of air or water pollution restrictions.

Overall, production from Central Appalachia — meaning mostly Southern West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky — is projected to be cut in half by the end of this decade, according to the latest U.S. Department of Energy forecasts.

These facts are starting to make it into the narrative just a little bit. Heck, in his press release about the Alpha layoff notices, Gov. Tomblin even commented that, “we recognize market trends can play a part in these potential closures”. But the governor was quick to pivot back to his real talking points, saying:

… However these actions also show the real-world impact of the regulatory environment in which industry must operate. Today’s announcement, in part related to power plant closures as a result of past EPA regulations, is why we remain concerned about the EPA’s current proposals regarding CO2.

For years, we have tried to warn the EPA of the consequences of its irresponsible mandates and today, our fears have unfortunately become our reality. I again urge the EPA to reconsider its proposed plan and realize the real impact these new rules have on West Virginia miners, their families and our communities.”

Rep. Nick J. Rahall, whose district will be hard hit by the Alpha actions, did the same thing in his statement:

The announcement is further evidence of the toll that market forces, including the low cost and abundance of natural gas, have taken on coal jobs.  But it is also incredibly frustrating to have an agency like the EPA being so purposefully blind to the effects of its policies on the economy and the lives of hard-working families.  I stand firm with our coal miners and will continue, at every opportunity, to help advance legislation in the House to block job-killing regulations.  I hope the Senate will follow suit.

But it’s pretty had to get any of these public officials to talk to their constituents about the real problem of what to do even if they beat the EPA rules and coal continues to decline anyway in our state’s southern counties. I asked Chris Stadelman, the governor’s communications director about this serious problem, and the statement did not even really acknowledge the issue:

Governor Tomblin’s plan for the entire state is to grow jobs with a highly trained work force, world-class education system and competitive tax structure, and all of those initiatives will help southern West Virginia as well. At the same time, special outreach efforts such as job retraining assistance and Reconnecting McDowell are being used to provide additional assistance to the southern part of the state to ensure future generations have the resources and skills they need to succeed. The governor’s goal has been, and continues to be, improving the quality of life for all West Virginians.

Still, public officials seem to have no problem saying things that seem aimed at convincing West Virginians that coal would be booming again, if only President Obama and his EPA would leave us alone. Take the speech that Gov. Tomblin delivered at this week’s big coal industry rally in Pittsburgh. The original, as delivered, version of this speech contained this line:

According to the Energy Information Agency, coal will be the world’s leading source of energy, surpassing oil by 2035.

Turns out that was a mistake, and the speech should have referenced the International Energy Agency and that organization’s World Energy Outlook 2013. The thing is, here’s the section that was being cited:

The power sector adjusts to a new life with wind and solar Renewables account for nearly half of the increase in global power generation to 2035, with variable sources – wind and solar photovoltaics – making up 45% of the expansion in renewables. China sees the biggest absolute increase in generation from renewable sources, more than the increase in the European Union, the United States and Japan combined. In some markets, the rising share of variable renewables creates challenges in the power sector, raising fundamental questions about current market design and its ability to ensure adequate investment and long-term reliability of supply. The increase in generation from renewables takes its share in the global power mix above 30%, drawing ahead of natural gas in the next few years and all but reaching coal as the leading fuel for power generation in 2035. The current rate of construction of nuclear power plants has been slowed by reviews of safety regulations, but output from nuclear eventually increases by two-thirds, led by China, Korea, India and Russia. Widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology would be a way to accelerate the anticipated decline in the CO2 emissions intensity of the power sector, but in our projections only around 1% of global fossil fuel-fired power plants are equipped with CCS by 2035.

That’s right, this was a report that said the power section was adjusting “to a new life” with wind and solar increasing their market share, and coal declining. It wasn’t, as the governor’s original speech said, any sort of indication that coal in West Virginia would rise again if our political leaders win their fight with EPA. The governor’s office has updated the text of the speech, so it now says:

According to the International Energy Agency, coal will be the world’s leading source of energy, surpassing natural gas and renewable sources by 2035.