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Peak Coal: Coming even sooner than we thought?

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Gazette photo by Chip Ellis

We’ve written before here about Peak Coal, with previous posts here, here,  and here.

But thanks to Coal Tattoo reader Mike Roselle for pointing out in yesterday’s comments section a new article in National Geographic that reports:

No matter how bad coal might be for the planet, the conventional wisdom is that there is so much of it underground that the world’s leading fuel for electricity will continue to dominate the energy scene unless global action is taken on climate change.

But what if conventional wisdom is wrong?

A new study seeks to shake up the assumption that use of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, is bound to continue its inexorable rise. In fact, the authors predict that world coal production may reach its peak as early as next year, and then begin a permanent decline.

The study, led by Tad Patzek, chairman of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, and published in the August issue of Energy, predicts that by mid-century, the world’s coal mining will supply only half as much energy as today.

The idea that the world will face “peak coal” as soon as 2011 flies in the face of most earlier estimates and analysis.

The article notes the optimistic estimates frequently tossed around by the industry and by pro-coal politicians, but says:

… The Patzek study paints a far different picture—and not because people will use up the last of the coal in the ground. Rather, the world will finish off the coal that is easy to reach and high-quality—the coal that produces a large amount of energy per ton, the new study says. What remains will often be of lower quality, and progressively harder to dig up and bring to where it is used.

The study’s prediction for the time of the peak—actually a peak in the energy produced by global coal production—may not turn out to be exactly right, Patzek said. “I’m not saying that on July 1, 2011, there will be a peak.”

But the main thrust of the study is stark: “We are near or at the peak right now,” he said.

This is a very important story that I urge Coal Tattoo readers to spend some time with …